Typical Odds

Posted : admin On 07.03.2021

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A period life table is based on the mortality experience of a population during a relatively short period of time. Here we present the 2017 period life table for the Social Security area population. For this table, the period life expectancy at a given age is the average remaining number of years expected prior to death for a person at that exact age, born on January 1, using the mortality rates for 2017 over the course of his or her remaining life.

Typical odds traduction

This life table is available for certain prior years.

Your odds of winning are better than this, as you can hit five bells, five whistles or five of any other set of symbols, so on this machine your odds of any set of five are actually 5 x 0.032%, or 0.16%. Updated November 04, 2020. More than a third of Americans believe winning the lottery is the only way they will ever retire comfortably. But the odds of winning either the Powerball or Mega Millions are roughly 1 in 292.2 million and 1 in 302.5 million, respectively. An odds ratio greater than 1 indicates that the condition or event is more likely to occur in the first group. And an odds ratio less than 1 indicates that the condition or event is less likely to occur in the first group. The odds ratio must be nonnegative if it is defined. It is undefined if p 2 q 1 equals zero, i.e., if p 2 equals zero or q 1 equals zero.

Exact
age
MaleFemale
Death
probability a
Number of
lives b
Life
expectancy
Death
probability a
Number of
lives b
Life
expectancy
0 0.006304 100,000 75.97 0.005229 100,000 80.96
1 0.000426 99,370 75.45 0.000342 99,477 80.39
2 0.000290 99,327 74.48 0.000209 99,443 79.42
3 0.000229 99,298 73.50 0.000162 99,422 78.43
4 0.000162 99,276 72.52 0.000143 99,406 77.45
5 0.000146 99,260 71.53 0.000125 99,392 76.46
6 0.000136 99,245 70.54 0.000113 99,379 75.47
7 0.000127 99,232 69.55 0.000104 99,368 74.47
8 0.000115 99,219 68.56 0.000097 99,358 73.48
9 0.000103 99,208 67.57 0.000093 99,348 72.49
10 0.000097 99,197 66.57 0.000092 99,339 71.50
11 0.000109 99,188 65.58 0.000098 99,330 70.50
12 0.000151 99,177 64.59 0.000113 99,320 69.51
13 0.000232 99,162 63.60 0.000138 99,309 68.52
14 0.000343 99,139 62.61 0.000172 99,295 67.53
15 0.000465 99,105 61.63 0.000211 99,278 66.54
16 0.000588 99,059 60.66 0.000251 99,257 65.55
17 0.000720 99,001 59.70 0.000293 99,232 64.57
18 0.000858 98,929 58.74 0.000336 99,203 63.59
19 0.000999 98,845 57.79 0.000379 99,170 62.61
20 0.001146 98,746 56.85 0.000425 99,132 61.63
21 0.001288 98,633 55.91 0.000472 99,090 60.66
22 0.001407 98,506 54.98 0.000515 99,044 59.69
23 0.001494 98,367 54.06 0.000551 98,993 58.72
24 0.001556 98,220 53.14 0.000582 98,938 57.75
25 0.001610 98,067 52.22 0.000612 98,880 56.78
26 0.001665 97,910 51.31 0.000646 98,820 55.82
27 0.001717 97,746 50.39 0.000684 98,756 54.85
28 0.001767 97,579 49.48 0.000729 98,689 53.89
29 0.001817 97,406 48.56 0.000779 98,617 52.93
30 0.001865 97,229 47.65 0.000833 98,540 51.97
31 0.001911 97,048 46.74 0.000887 98,458 51.01
32 0.001960 96,862 45.83 0.000939 98,370 50.06
33 0.002014 96,672 44.92 0.000988 98,278 49.10
34 0.002071 96,478 44.01 0.001034 98,181 48.15
35 0.002138 96,278 43.10 0.001085 98,079 47.20
36 0.002211 96,072 42.19 0.001143 97,973 46.25
37 0.002279 95,860 41.28 0.001205 97,861 45.30
38 0.002342 95,641 40.37 0.001271 97,743 44.36
39 0.002405 95,417 39.47 0.001345 97,619 43.41
40 0.002482 95,188 38.56 0.001429 97,488 42.47
41 0.002583 94,951 37.65 0.001524 97,348 41.53
42 0.002710 94,706 36.75 0.001630 97,200 40.59
43 0.002870 94,450 35.85 0.001748 97,042 39.66
44 0.003064 94,178 34.95 0.001881 96,872 38.73
45 0.003285 93,890 34.06 0.002029 96,690 37.80
46 0.003538 93,581 33.17 0.002195 96,494 36.88
47 0.003834 93,250 32.28 0.002386 96,282 35.96
48 0.004178 92,893 31.41 0.002605 96,052 35.04
49 0.004569 92,505 30.54 0.002851 95,802 34.13
50 0.004997 92,082 29.67 0.003118 95,529 33.23
51 0.005462 91,622 28.82 0.003403 95,231 32.33
52 0.005971 91,122 27.98 0.003714 94,907 31.44
53 0.006526 90,577 27.14 0.004052 94,554 30.55
54 0.007125 89,986 26.32 0.004415 94,171 29.68
55 0.007766 89,345 25.50 0.004813 93,755 28.81
56 0.008445 88,651 24.70 0.005233 93,304 27.94
57 0.009156 87,903 23.90 0.005647 92,816 27.09
58 0.009897 87,098 23.12 0.006043 92,292 26.24
59 0.010671 86,236 22.34 0.006441 91,734 25.39
60 0.011519 85,316 21.58 0.006886 91,143 24.56
61 0.012419 84,333 20.83 0.007391 90,515 23.72
62 0.013307 83,286 20.08 0.007931 89,846 22.90
63 0.014164 82,177 19.35 0.008508 89,134 22.07
64 0.015032 81,013 18.62 0.009142 88,375 21.26
65 0.016013 79,795 17.89 0.009874 87,568 20.45
66 0.017138 78,518 17.18 0.010717 86,703 19.65
67 0.018362 77,172 16.47 0.011660 85,774 18.86
68 0.019693 75,755 15.77 0.012711 84,774 18.07
69 0.021174 74,263 15.07 0.013894 83,696 17.30
70 0.022889 72,691 14.39 0.015285 82,533 16.54
71 0.024869 71,027 13.71 0.016878 81,272 15.79
72 0.027095 69,261 13.05 0.018607 79,900 15.05
73 0.029587 67,384 12.40 0.020466 78,413 14.32
74 0.032394 65,390 11.76 0.022522 76,809 13.61
75 0.035668 63,272 11.14 0.024929 75,079 12.92
76 0.039396 61,015 10.53 0.027729 73,207 12.23
77 0.043453 58,611 9.94 0.030855 71,177 11.57
78 0.047826 56,065 9.37 0.034321 68,981 10.92
79 0.052649 53,383 8.82 0.038211 66,613 10.29
80 0.058206 50,573 8.28 0.042771 64,068 9.68
81 0.064581 47,629 7.76 0.047992 61,328 9.09
82 0.071657 44,553 7.26 0.053678 58,385 8.52
83 0.079465 41,361 6.79 0.059810 55,251 7.98
84 0.088141 38,074 6.33 0.066584 51,946 7.45
85 0.097854 34,718 5.89 0.074258 48,487 6.95
86 0.108747 31,321 5.48 0.083053 44,887 6.47
87 0.120919 27,915 5.08 0.093123 41,159 6.01
88 0.134425 24,539 4.71 0.104540 37,326 5.57
89 0.149273 21,241 4.37 0.117305 33,424 5.16
90 0.165452 18,070 4.05 0.131392 29,503 4.78
91 0.182935 15,080 3.75 0.146753 25,627 4.43
92 0.201679 12,322 3.48 0.163331 21,866 4.11
93 0.221637 9,837 3.23 0.181064 18,294 3.81
94 0.242747 7,656 3.01 0.199886 14,982 3.55
95 0.263672 5,798 2.81 0.218908 11,987 3.31
96 0.284014 4,269 2.64 0.237815 9,363 3.09
97 0.303355 3,057 2.49 0.256265 7,136 2.90
98 0.321268 2,129 2.36 0.273894 5,308 2.73
99 0.337332 1,445 2.24 0.290328 3,854 2.58
100 0.354198 958 2.12 0.307747 2,735 2.42
101 0.371908 619 2.01 0.326212 1,893 2.28
102 0.390503 388 1.90 0.345785 1,276 2.14
103 0.410029 237 1.80 0.366532 835 2.01
104 0.430530 140 1.70 0.388524 529 1.88
105 0.452057 80 1.60 0.411835 323 1.76
106 0.474659 44 1.51 0.436546 190 1.65
107 0.498392 23 1.42 0.462738 107 1.54
108 0.523312 11 1.34 0.490503 58 1.44
109 0.549478 5 1.26 0.519933 29 1.34
110 0.576951 2 1.18 0.551129 14 1.24
111 0.605799 1 1.10 0.584196 6 1.15
112 0.636089 0 1.03 0.619248 3 1.06
113 0.667893 0 0.96 0.656403 1 0.98
114 0.701288 0 0.90 0.695787 0 0.91
115 0.736353 0 0.84 0.736353 0 0.84
116 0.773170 0 0.78 0.773170 0 0.78
117 0.811829 0 0.72 0.811829 0 0.72
118 0.852420 0 0.66 0.852420 0 0.66
119 0.895041 0 0.61 0.895041 0 0.61
a Probability of dying within one year.
b Number of survivors out of 100,000 born alive.

Note: The period life expectancy at a given age for 2017 represents the average number of years of life remaining if a group of persons at that age were to experience the mortality rates for 2017 over the course of their remaining life.

The Social Security area population is comprised of (1) residents of the 50 States and the District of Columbia (adjusted for net census undercount); (2) civilian residents of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa, and the Northern Mariana Islands; (3) Federal civilian employees and persons in the U.S. Armed Forces abroad and their dependents; (4) non-citizens living abroad who are insured for Social Security benefits; and (5) all other U.S. citizens abroad.

Introduction

The house edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet. In some games the beginning wager is not necessarily the ending wager. For example in blackjack, let it ride, and Caribbean stud poker, the player may increase their bet when the odds favor doing so. In these cases the additional money wagered is not figured into the denominator for the purpose of determining the house edge, thus increasing the measure of risk. For games like Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em and Crazy 4 Poker, where there are two required initial wagers, the house edge is based on one of them only. House edge figures are based on optimal or near-optimal player strategy.

The table below shows the house edge of most popular casino games and bets.

Casino Game House Edge

GameBet/RulesHouse EdgeStandard
Deviation
BaccaratBanker1.06%0.93
Player1.24%0.95
Tie14.36%2.64
Big Six$111.11%0.99
$216.67%1.34
$522.22%2.02
$1018.52%2.88
$2022.22%3.97
Joker/Logo24.07%5.35
Bonus SixNo insurance10.42%5.79
With insurance23.83%6.51
BlackjackaLiberal Vegas rules0.28%1.15
Caribbean Stud Poker5.22%2.24
Casino WarGo to war on ties2.88%1.05
Surrender on ties3.70%0.94
Bet on tie18.65%8.32
Catch a Wave0.50%d
CrapsPass/Come1.41%1.00
Don't pass/don't come1.36%0.99
Odds — 4 or 100.00%1.41
Odds — 5 or 90.00%1.22
Odds — 6 or 80.00%1.10
Field (2:1 on 12)5.56%1.08
Field (3:1 on 12)2.78%1.14
Any craps11.11%2.51
Big 6,89.09%1.00
Hard 4,1011.11%2.51
Hard 6,89.09%2.87
Place 6,81.52%1.08
Place 5,94.00%1.18
Place 4,106.67%1.32
Place (to lose) 4,103.03%0.69
2, 12, & all hard hops13.89%5.09
3, 11, & all easy hops11.11%3.66
Any seven16.67%1.86
Crazy 4 PokerAnte3.42%*3.13*
Double Down Stud2.67%2.97
Heads Up Hold 'EmBlind pay table #1 (500-50-10-8-5)2.36%4.56
Keno25%-29%1.30-46.04
Let it Ride3.51%5.17
Pai Gowc1.50%0.75
Pai Gow Pokerc1.46%0.75
Pick ’em Poker0% - 10%3.87
Red DogSix decks2.80%1.60
RouletteSingle Zero2.70%e
Double Zero5.26%e
Sic-Bo2.78%-33.33%e
Slot Machines2%-15%f8.74g
Spanish 21Dealer hits soft 170.76%d
Dealer stands on soft 170.40%d
Super Fun 210.94%d
Three Card PokerPairplus7.28%2.85
Ante & play3.37%1.64
Ultimate Texas Hold 'EmAnte2.19%4.94
Video PokerJacks or Better (Full Pay)0.46%4.42
Wild Hold ’em Fold ’em6.86%d

Notes

Typical Parlay Odds

aLiberal Vegas Strip rules: Dealer stands on soft 17, player may double on any two cards, player may double after splitting, resplit aces, late surrender.
bLas Vegas single deck rules are dealer hits on soft 17, player may double on any two cards, player may not double after splitting, one card to split aces, no surrender.
cAssuming player plays the house way, playing one on one against dealer, and half of bets made are as banker.
dYet to be determined.
eStandard deviation depends on bet made.
fSlot machine range is based on available returns from a major manufacturer
gSlot machine standard deviation based on just one machine. While this can vary, the standard deviation on slot machines are very high.

Guide to House Edge

The reason that the house edge is relative to the original wager, not the average wager, is that it makes it easier for the player to estimate how much they will lose. For example if a player knows the house edge in blackjack is 0.6% he can assume that for every $10 wager original wager he makes he will lose 6 cents on the average. Most players are not going to know how much their average wager will be in games like blackjack relative to the original wager, thus any statistic based on the average wager would be difficult to apply to real life questions.

The conventional definition can be helpful for players determine how much it will cost them to play, given the information they already know. However the statistic is very biased as a measure of risk. In Caribbean stud poker, for example, the house edge is 5.22%, which is close to that of double zero roulette at 5.26%. However the ratio of average money lost to average money wagered in Caribbean stud is only 2.56%. The player only looking at the house edge may be indifferent between roulette and Caribbean stud poker, based only the house edge. If one wants to compare one game against another I believe it is better to look at the ratio of money lost to money wagered, which would show Caribbean stud poker to be a much better gamble than roulette.

Many other sources do not count ties in the house edge calculation, especially for the Don’t Pass bet in craps and the banker and player bets in baccarat. The rationale is that if a bet isn’t resolved then it should be ignored. I personally opt to include ties although I respect the other definition.

Element of Risk

For purposes of comparing one game to another I would like to propose a different measurement of risk, which I call the 'element of risk.' This measurement is defined as the average loss divided by total money bet. For bets in which the initial bet is always the final bet there would be no difference between this statistic and the house edge. Bets in which there is a difference are listed below.

Element of Risk

GameBetHouse EdgeElement
of Risk
BlackjackAtlantic City rules0.43%0.38%
Bonus 6No insurance10.42%5.41%
Bonus 6With insurance23.83%6.42%
Caribbean Stud Poker5.22%2.56%
Casino WarGo to war on ties2.88%2.68%
Crazy 4 PokerStandard rules3.42%*1.09%
Heads Up Hold 'EmPay Table #1 (500-50-10-8-5)2.36%0.64%
Double Down Stud2.67%2.13%
Let it Ride3.51%2.85%
Spanish 21Dealer hits soft 170.76%0.65%
Spanish 21Dealer stands on soft 170.40%0.30%
Three Card PokerAnte & play3.37%2.01%
Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em2.19%*0.53%
Wild Hold ’em Fold ’em6.86%3.23%

Standard Deviation

The standard deviation is a measure of how volatile your bankroll will be playing a given game. This statistic is commonly used to calculate the probability that the end result of a session of a defined number of bets will be within certain bounds.

The standard deviation of the final result over n bets is the product of the standard deviation for one bet (see table) and the square root of the number of initial bets made in the session. This assumes that all bets made are of equal size. The probability that the session outcome will be within one standard deviation is 68.26%. The probability that the session outcome will be within two standard deviations is 95.46%. The probability that the session outcome will be within three standard deviations is 99.74%. The following table shows the probability that a session outcome will come within various numbers of standard deviations.

I realize that this explanation may not make much sense to someone who is not well versed in the basics of statistics. If this is the case I would recommend enriching yourself with a good introductory statistics book.

Standard Deviation

NumberProbability
0.250.1974
0.500.3830
0.750.5468
1.000.6826
1.250.7888
1.500.8664
1.750.9198
2.000.9546
2.250.9756
2.500.9876
2.750.9940
3.000.9974
3.250.9988
3.500.9996
3.750.9998

Hold

Although I do not mention hold percentages on my site the term is worth defining because it comes up a lot. The hold percentage is the ratio of chips the casino keeps to the total chips sold. This is generally measured over an entire shift. For example if blackjack table x takes in $1000 in the drop box and of the $1000 in chips sold the table keeps $300 of them (players walked away with the other $700) then the game's hold is 30%. If every player loses their entire purchase of chips then the hold will be 100%. It is possible for the hold to exceed 100% if players carry to the table chips purchased at another table. A mathematician alone can not determine the hold because it depends on how long the player will sit at the table and the same money circulates back and forth. There is a lot of confusion between the house edge and hold, especially among casino personnel.

Hands per Hour, House Edge for Comp Purposes

The following table shows the average hands per hour and the house edge for comp purposes various games. The house edge figures are higher than those above, because the above figures assume optimal strategy, and those below reflect player errors and average type of bet made. This table was given to me anonymously by an executive with a major Strip casino and is used for rating players.

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Typical Adsl Speed

Hands per Hour and Average House Edge

GamesHands/HourHouse Edge
Baccarat721.2%
Blackjack700.75%
Big Six1015.53%
Craps481.58%
Car. Stud501.46%
Let It Ride522.4%
Mini-Baccarat721.2%
Midi-Baccarat721.2%
Pai Gow301.65%
Pai Pow Poker341.96%
Roulette385.26%
Single 0 Roulette352.59%
Casino War652.87%
Spanish 21752.2%
Sic Bo458%
3 Way Action702.2%

Footnotes

* — House edge based on Ante bet only as opposed to all mandatory wagers (for example the Blind in Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em and the Super Bonus in Crazy 4 Poker.

Translation

Typical Horse Racing Odds

A Spanish translation of this page is available at www.eldropbox.com.

Typical Betting Odds


Typical Odds On A Dice Table

Written by: Michael Shackleford