Interestingly enough, the Red Sox have almost identical odds to win the division and the pennant. DraftKings has Boston at 20-to-1 to win the AL East and 23-to-1 to win the American League. The Phillies have the third-best World Series odds amongst teams in the National League East, which many consider being the most competitive division in baseball. The Mets rode the wave of getting a new owner to have one of the more active offseasons in the majors to nab the fourth-best odds to win it all in 2021. The over/under win totals are out and the Phillies' number is 85.5 at FanDuel and 84.5 at DraftKings. I'd go over at 84.5. Think about how many injuries the Phillies suffered last season. Think about the talent gap between Wheeler and every Phillies starting pitcher behind Aaron Nola last season. The Baltimore Orioles have a season win total of 57.5, and the Yankees are at 97. Here are the odds you need to know for all 30 MLB teams.
From 2008 to 2011, the Philadelphia Phillies won 5 NL East Crowns and a World Series title. Since losing their latest playoff series against the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2011 NLDS, the Phillies have been an absolute disaster. They have finished below .500 in seven of the last nine seasons, and that includes two seasons in which they finished with an 81-81 record.
Last season, the Phillies finished with a record of 28-32, which was good enough for third place in the NL East, 7 games back of the division-winning Atlanta Braves. On paper, this team should be much better than they showed last year, but the rotation and bullpen are going to be vital in getting the Phillies back into contention over a 162-game season.
The Philadelphia Phillies get their 2021 campaign underway with a six-game homestand that will see the Mets and Braves visit Citizens Bank Park for three games apiece. From there, the Phillies head to Truist park in Atlanta for three against the Braves then to Citi Field for four against the Mets. The Phillies are currently +5500 to win the World Series, +2500 to win the NL Pennant and + 900 to win the NL East crown. The season win total is 80.5, which tells us that Vegas expects them to be a mediocre team this year.
Phillies 2021 Projected Lineup
When you look at the Phillies roster, you can only scratch your head and wonder why they are so bad on a yearly basis. They have guys that can hit for power and average and have speed to burn on the bases. The projections for this lineup are outstanding. Therefore, if they can hold up their end of the bargain, the rotation and bullpen need to hold up theirs. As of writing this, the Phillies’ batting lineup looks something like this:
- Andrew McCutchen
- Alec Bohm
- Bryce Harper
- J.T. Realmuto
- Rhys Hoskins
- Didi Gregorius
- Jean Segura
- Scott Kingery
- Pitchers Spot
I fully understand that Andrew McCutchen is a shell of what he was when he broke onto the scene in Pittsburgh, but he’s still quick and still has some pop in his bat as noted by 10 home runs last year. If he can get on base and provide the likes of Bohm and Harper pitches to hit, he will get an A+ grading for his efforts.
Behind him, the Phillies will rely on Bohm, Harper, Realmuto, Hoskins, and Gregorius to do most of the heavy lifting. They are projected to hit a combined 137 home runs this season, with Harper leading the way at a projected 36. Each of these players has a ton to prove to a lot of people, especially Harper, who is continuously criticized for his massive contract. If you are going to get paid like a mega superstar, then the results need to speak for themselves. And with the Phillies not sniffing a postseason berth in the Harper era, the criticism is warranted to an extent.
Phillies 2021 Projected Rotation & Closer
The Phillies’ pitching staff is comprised of young pitchers who have extreme upside. Unfortunately, none of them, outside of their staff “ace”, Aaron Nola, has been able to put together an effective full season. Nola was one of the lone bright spots last year for the Phillies, pitching to a record of 5-5 with a 3.28 ERA.
Behind Nola, the Phillies will trot out Zack Wheeler, Zack Eflin, Vince Velasquez, and Matt Moore. Wheeler and Eflin are the more known pitchers out of this foursome, but it was Wheeler who had the better 2020 season. The former Mets product started 11 games last year and pitched himself to a 4-2 record with a 2.92 era. He’s been a .500 or better pitcher three straight years, so it’s critical that he keep up the solid work if the Phillies want to stay out of the basement. Behind him, Eflin, Velasquez, and Moore will need to contribute to the cause in a big way, with the latter of the trio not even pitching last year.
In terms of the bullpen, the Phillies will rely on Hector Neris to do the closing. Neris performed admirably last season and was able to convert five save opportunities but had an ERA of 4.57. The Bullpen was the Phillies’ downfall last season. And if it doesn’t perform better, the Phillies will be behind the eight-ball all season long.
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FanGraphs projects Philadelphia to finish the season with an 80-82 record, which would be good enough for fourth place in the division. If that does in fact happen, it’ll be another disappointment for Phillies fans and the criticism will only continue to pile up. The season win total is right where it should be. However, one look at the batting order and it’s hard to pull the trigger on the under. I’d take the over if the price was right.
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The Philadelphia Phillies finished 28-32, placing third in the National League East in last year’s shortened season. Below, we look at the Philadelphia Phillies’MLB futures odds, including their projected 2021 win total and World Series odds at BetMGM.
Led by a nucleus of RF Bryce Harper, 1B Rhys Hoskins and C J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies have no issues scoring runs. They ranked fourth in the NL with 306 last season.
The problem was the pitching staff, which ranked 14th in the NL in both ERA (5.14) and runs allowed (311).
Philly didn’t see the need to make major tweaks to the lineup. They did add OF Matt Joyce, who is competing for the third outfield job.
Right-handed pitchers Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Zach Eflin are locks for the rotation. Free-agent signees LHP Matt Moore and RHP Chase Anderson are the leading candidates for the final two spots.
The Phillies are hoping to shore up the bullpen with free-agent addition RHP Archie Bradley, who is a good bet to be the closer. He saved 18 games for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2019 and had six saves last season before being traded to the Cincinnati Reds.
Philadelphia Phillies’ 2021 World Series odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday, March 10 at 10:56 a.m. ET.
Odds: +3500 (bet $100 to win $3,500)
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites at +350, followed by the New York Yankees (+600), Atlanta Braves (+900) and San Diego Padres (+900).
At +3500, the Phillies’ implied probability of winning the World Series is 2.78% or 35/1 fractional odds. With their offense, the PHILLIES (+3500) are worthy of a small wager … but the pitching definitely will have to improve.
The biggest long shots are the Pittsburgh Pirates at +15000, which is an implied probability of 0.66% or 150/1. The Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals are each +10000 for an implied probability of 0.99% or 100/1.
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Philadelphia Phillies’ 2021 win total
Over/Under: 80.5 (O: -110 U: -110)
Improving pitching can’t be emphasized enough. With skipper Joe Girardi in his second year at the helm, it’s hard to imagine his experience of 15 years behind the plate won’t rub off. I really like OVER 80.5 (-110) for Philly in 2021.
Phillies Odds To Win Division
Odds to win the NL East DivisionBraves: +130 (bet $100 to win $130)New York Mets: +150 (bet $100 to win $150)Washington Nationals: +650 (bet $100 to win $650)Phillies: +800 (bet $100 to win $800)Miami Marlins: +1600 (bet $100 to win $1,600)
Mlb Odds To Win Division
The Phillies’ implied probability of winning the division is 11.11% or 8/1 fractional odds. With an 8-to-1 payoff, betting PHILLIES (+800) is worth a shot.
Odds to win the National League
Odds: +1600 (bet $100 to win $1,600)
Five teams have shorter odds – the Dodgers (+175), Padres (+400), Braves (+500), Mets (+600) and St. Louis Cardinals (+1200).
Baseball Odds To Win Division
At +1600, the Phillies’ implied probability of winning the NL pennant is 5.88% or 16/1 fractional odds.
The Pirates (+8000) and Diamondbacks (+5000) are the longest shots.
Just like the World Series odds, backing the PHILLIES (+1600) to win the NL crown offers a decent value considering the talent they have.
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Mlb Odds To Win Division Series
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Phillies Odds To Win Division 2
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