Get Better Odds - Try Exchange Betting. Fixed odds bookmakers employ teams of odds traders and use tons of maths and analysis to set prices, margins and balance books. While it is possible to find the loop holes and get a great price it is very hard to do on a regular basis. Most professional bettors almost exclusively bet on exchanges. The evolution of exchange betting has revolutionised market-making to such a degree that even the biggest bookmaker names no longer employ professional odds setters. How did odds making start? As touched on in our Brief History of Betting blog, the concept of calculating the likely chance of a winner in a horse race, and converting that into.
Golf betting can be one of the more profitable ventures of the major sports, with upward of 150 golfers teeing it up each week. The larger fields provide odds considerably longer than what are seen in any other sport. Golf fans also have a variety of options from which to choose — the PGA Tour, European Tour, Korn Ferry Tour and LPGA. Below, we look at the best ways to bet on golf, along with definitions of key terms and an explanation of the odds.
Golf betting: Ways to bet
Access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list of today’s sports betting odds and lines.Outright: Picking a winner from a field of 120-155 golfers isn’t quite as daunting as it seems. The Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings are an effective measure to compare different golfers, as are course history and statistics. Odds can range from +800 (8-to-1) to +30000 (300-to-1), though winners generally come from the +2000 to +10000 range.Placing: Not as profitable as outright wins, but bettors can instead back multiple golfers to finish in the top 5, top 10, or even top 20 in order to ensure at least a moderate profit each week. These bets are best for long shots, as the outright odds for each golfer will decline according to the wider the range of their finishing position.Matchup: Golfers from a similar world ranking or geographical region — or who share a tee time — are put in head-to-head or three-ball matchups, with the winner the golfer who posts the lower round or tournament score. Odds typically range from -150 to +150.Groups: World rankings, notoriety or nationality can place golfers in groups of six to 10 for the lowest four-round tournament score. Odds can range from +100 to more than +2000 depending on the number of golfers included in the group and their world ranking.Round betting: Instead of backing golfers for a full 72 holes, look for 18-hole leaders or placings at the end of the first, second or third rounds. First-round leader odds can be higher than the tournament odds for the favorites while dropping slightly for the long shots.Live betting: Jump in on outright odds at any point after the first tee shot. Odds will be adjusted based on the current leaderboard and the positioning of the pre-tournament favorites. It’s often best to hope a favorite starts poorly relative to the rest of the field and back them once the odds spike.Props: Generally the least profitable and predictable of the odds in golf; bettors can bet on whether a hole-in-one will be made, or the winner’s final score, for example.Futures: Continuously scouting the futures odds for the Masters, PGA Championship, US Open, Open Championship or the Ryder Cup can offer great value. Look for changes among the world’s top-ranked values and back them to win a major following a poor stretch of results in regular tournament play.
Golf betting: Key betting terms to knowFavorites: Typically based on world ranking, but others with strong course history or on a hot stretch of recent top finishes can be viewed as a tournament favorite with odds lower than +2000. Be wary of low-ranked golfers with lower odds than they’d normally possess.Long shots: Priced at +5000 or higher, golfers who generally haven’t won much or have poor history on a particular course. Value exists when spotting a top-ranked golfer who has slipped into this range in a particularly strong field.Chalk: Referring to a heavy favorite priced at +1000 or higher. These golfers are never worth a bet as a broad rule, as the return simply isn’t worth the risk. Be cautious of a heavy favorite in an otherwise weak field.Parlay: Just like grouping bets from multiple different games in other sports, bettors can back outright winners from different pro tours. It’s a good way to get value on the heavy favorites from both the PGA Tour and LPGA in the same week.
Golf betting: How do odds work?
As noted above, outright odds in a typical tournament can range from +800 to +30000, depending on how many golfers are in a field and the overall strength of a field. These odds mean a $10 bet can return a profit anywhere from $80 to $3,000.
Several golfers should be backed each week as an outright winner, with a larger portion of your bankroll being devoted to placing, matchup or group bets in order to ensure at least a small return on your weekly investment. There’s nothing worse than having your sneaky long shot finish second or third and not getting anything for it.
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By Derek Simon
Note: I wrote the following article several years ago, but received a request to post it again. It pertains to making a fair odds line and includes a link to an Excel program that I created to aid in the process.
Recently, I’ve been getting quite a few inquiries about fair odds lines — mainly, how does a horseplayer go about making one and what are they good for?
Let’s kick off the discussion with the last question — after all, what’s the use in creating something without first knowing what it does (trust me, I’ve seen enough science fiction movies to know this is a terrible idea)? Simply put, a fair odds line provides gamblers with a means of making rational wagering decisions.
For example, most players know that betting to win on a horse that is 2-5 or less doesn’t make a lot of sense. To make any money on such steeds, a gambler would need to cash at least 71 percent of the time, which is extremely unlikely (not to mention the fact that the place and show payoffs would probably be just as high if not higher than the win return, making a win bet look that much more foolish).
Yet very few punters take the next logical step and assign specific minimum betting odds to all (or even some) of the race contenders.
This is where a fair odds line comes in.
A fair odds line attempts to quantify a handicapper’s feelings about a particular race and provide a framework for better money management decisions. Statements like “I knew I should have used that horse” are, theoretically at least, foreign to one who employs a fair odds line on a regular basis.
This is because bets are made — or not made — depending on whether the horse in question is an overlay (post-time odds greater than its fair odds) or underlay (post-time odds less than its fair odds). As a result, the angst of deciding whether or not to include a horse in one’s wagers is, in effect, made by the betting public.
So, without further ado, let’s move on to the main course — constructing the line:
- For every horse, assign odds that you think are fair. If it helps, use the morning line as a guide.
- Convert these odds to a percentage. Because I am such a kindhearted guy, I have included a chart, as well as a link to an Excel spreadsheet program, to make this process easier.
- Add all the individual percentages together to get the total line percentage. If this number is exactly 100 percent (plus or minus a few tenths of a point due to rounding discrepancies), you have what is known as a “true” line, which is what I personally strive for.
However, many value handicappers like to mirror the tote board and include takeout and breakage in the equation. In this case, a total line percentage of up to 125 percent is OK. Beyond that, though, I would suggest re-calculating or massaging your fair odds. Perhaps the horse you listed at 2-1 should be 5-2 instead. Maybe a couple of the horses you tabbed at 15-1 should really be 20-1. Continue making adjustments like this until the total line percentage meets your goal.
Click HERE to get your free Fair Odds Calculator.
Actually using the fair odds line is a piece of cake: just concentrate on betting overlays and eliminating underlays.
Of course, I’m aware of the fact that this is easier said than done and will almost surely require practice and a fair amount of patience. Underlays you tossed will win — sometimes at or above their fair odds, thanks to an influx of late money into the pool; overlays you wagered on will magically transform into underlays for the same reason.
But don’t give up. Remember, most gamblers lose because they bet too many underlays. The legendary punter George E. Smith (“Pittsburg Phil”) said it best when he noted: “You cannot be a successful horse player if you are going to get the worst of the price all the time.”
Fair odds ensure that you don’t.
Now, before I leave this subject there are two important things to consider as you move along the path toward becoming a value bettor:
- A horse is not an overlay or underlay just because your fair odds say it is. After all, your line could be — and in many cases is — wrong.
- Don’t get overly cocky and dismiss the crowd’s opinion entirely. If a horse that you think should be 5-2 is 20-1 on the board, ask yourself why. Is there something you missed, a factor that you weighted too heavily or too lightly? In other words, look for errors in your calculations before you rush to the windows to bet your life savings.
Also, be sure to test your fair odds. They should win at the rate you say they do. What’s more, they should keep winning at that rate (or very close to it) as the actual odds vary. If your 2-1 shots win a third of the time overall, but only one percent of the time when the horse is a supposed overlay, you’ve definitely got a problem. High limit jackpots 2020.
In regard to your fair odds line itself, it pays to keep in mind something that betting guru Dick Mitchell learned in the course of his fair odds studies. After years of trying to find a line that adequately reflected the performance of the top three wagering choices (again, contrary to what racetrack charlatans proclaim, the betting pools are generally efficient), Mitchell heard a television commentator discuss the “80/20 rule.”
First advanced by business consultant Joseph M. Juran, the 80/20 rule, or Pareto Principle, is the notion that 80 percent of all consequences stem from just 20 percent of all causes. 20 percent of the world’s population control 80 percent of its resources, 20 percent of the people on Earth possess 80 percent of the talent (not necessarily the same 20 percent, mind you) and so forth and so on.
How Do Bookies Make Odds
From a betting standpoint, Mitchell realized that a fair odds line should reflect that same fundamental truth. Hence, he began assigning 80 percent of his ratings to his top contenders and the remaining 20 percent to the rest of the field — with great success.
How To Make Odds For Betting Numbers
I bring this up because many rookie line makers will find that their fair odds are too similar — a lot of 3-1, 4-1 and 6-1 chances — and not very reflective of real-life betting tendencies (which should always be one of the goals). By reassigning 80 percent (or thereabouts) of the probabilities to one’s top choices, this can be avoided.