- Here are the latest odds and expert predictions for Canelo vs. Canelo Alvarez vs. Avni Yildirim odds. Canelo: 1/50; Yildirim: 14/1; Draw: 30/1 (All odds via Unikrn) Unikrn unsurprisingly has Canelo as the overwhelming favorite to win. Canelo has only ever been defeated as a professional by the legendary Floyd Mayweather, a result that took place way back in 2013.
- Gennadiy Golovkin 3: Odds Show Canelo As A Large Betting Favorite In their first two fights, Gennadiy Golovkin was the favorite against Canelo Alvarez. That's not the case for fight No.
Upon studying the latest Gennadiy Golovkin vs. Canelo odds, I realized something — for the first time in 14 years as a professional, Golovkin will open as the underdog in a fight.
And I am not surprised in the slightest.
In fact, I’ll put my neck on the line and say this — anyone who still believes that Golovkin is the monster he once was will be disappointed once this fight is made. And according to reports, both guys have agreed to a third fight that could go down as early as the fall of 2020.
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The prospect of seeing Canelo vs. Golovkin 3 earlier than this is unlikely, given how the coronavirus outbreak has put sports on the backburner for the foreseeable. But those excited at the prospect will get the fight. I am certain of that.
While I am not exactly excited about this matchup, I’ll still be watching. Why? Well, part of me wants to believe that GGG still has what it takes to make it a spectacle. But is this a case of my heart talking louder than my head?
I’m going to explain why this unification fight just doesn’t have the same appeal in 2020, but first, let’s take a look at the latest Canelo vs. GGG betting odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
These odds make for interesting reading. What’s more, they confirmed to me that there are still plenty of boxing betting fans who believe Golovkin can beat Canelo.
I was keen to see if the odds would change within the course of seven days, as I was confident that they would. Canelo opened at -350 on the same betting site, while Golovkin’s odds were +260.
Now, some will argue that there is serious betting value in taking Golovkin at those odds. This is a genuine world-class talent who has only ever lost one fight — to Canelo — and in my opinion, he probably deserved to win that fight.
But I’m not sure he is the same fighter. I’ll explain why a little later.
Ahead of their first bout in September 2017, Golovkin opened as the -170 favorite over Canelo (+165) and closed at -200 to the Mexican’s +145.
In the rematch a year later, Golovkin opened at -170 to Canelo’s +150, closing at -365 to his opponent’s +175.
You can see that the bookmakers feel the same way as I do.
The Latest on Canelo vs. Golovkin 3
According to reports, Canelo was set to face Britain’s unbeaten slickster, Billy Joe Saunders, on May 2 in Las Vegas.
That matchup would have been a lot more exciting, in my opinion, but will likely be postponed due to the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. As such, a little rescheduling will probably be in order.
This could very well open the gate to Canelo vs. Golovkin 3 in 2020, which has reportedly been agreed to by both camps.
The fight is being looked at for September, according to that report, which means Canelo and Golovkin — who was initially expected to fight earlier this year — will attempt to put an end to their rivalry, once and for all.
Well, if Golovkin wins the fight, it would almost certainly pave the way for a fourth fight, given that both men would be tied at one win and a draw from three contests.
Golovkin earned a controversial win over Ukraine’s Sergiy Derevyanchenko in October to claim the vacant IBF and IBO middleweight titles.
It is unclear if the fight will be at middleweight, where Canelo holds the WBA and The Ring straps, or up at super-middleweight where he has the same straps as well as the IBF crown.
One thing I am definitely concerned about ahead of this fight is that Golovkin could look every one of his 38 years when he steps in against Canelo.
The Kazakh legend will turn 38 in April, and after a long professional career and a lengthy spell in the unpaid ranks, he doesn’t have much left in the sport. Not ideal against this version of Canelo, who has entered his prime.
I predicted that Golovkin would struggle against Derevyanchenko in October, going as far as to pick him to win the fight. It was the worst performance I have ever seen from GGG, who had entered the fight as the -450 favorite.
Despite being knocked down in the first round, I had Derevyanchenko winning a close fight and was disappointed for him, if not surprised, when the judges awarded Golovkin a unanimous decision.
But that’s boxing.
Despite earning the 41st win of an illustrious career, Golovkin looked disjointed, tired, and far from the all-conquering wrecking ball of his prime. And that’s because, well, he is not in his prime anymore.
Canelo, on the other hand, looked superb against Daniel Jacobs in May and knocked out former light heavyweight boogieman Sergey Kovalev in November to win a title in four separate weight classes.
Sure, Kovalev might have been past his best and on a quick turnaround following a war against Anthony Yarde, but he has the momentum heading into this fight.
Will Canelo Knock Golovkin Out?
Even if I see Canelo looking the sharper of the two when this fight is made, I would be very surprised to see a knockout.
I’m not ruling it out, of course, but I think Golovkin’s chin is still iron cast.
What we have seen over the years is an evolution in the way Canelo fights, and he will be looking to use his boxing skills in the trilogy fight.
He will feel that he has proven himself as a knockout artist over the past few years against the likes of Kovalev, Rocky Fielding, and Liam Smith, so expect a measured and patient approach this time around.
I suppose you could argue that this was his approach in the first encounter between the two. When compared with the second bout, Canelo was more cautious of the power of GGG but pretty much stood toe to toe with him in the rematch.
He knows he can take Golovkin’s power. The Kazakh has two KOs in his last five fights, which came against Steve Rolls and Vanes Martirosyan. However, when the opposition has been of a higher caliber, he hasn’t been able to be as ruthless.
Prior to Canelo going the full 12 with him, Golovkin earned a razor-thin majority decision win over Daniel Jacobs. His last fight, against Derevyanchenko, also went the distance.
The only other fight that Golovkin was unable to finish inside the distance was an eight-rounder against Ian Gardner in April 2008.
So, either his power is mostly ineffective against elite-level middleweights, or they have been on the wane for some time. His chin, however, has held up. He has never been dropped in his professional career, and I don’t expect Alvarez to change this.
It’s not out of the question, of course, but unlikely.
Can he beat Canelo? Well, without giving you a bloated response, all I’ll say that he has a chance as long as he is in the ring. But if the question was reframed to “will he beat Canelo?”, I’d probably give you a blunt “no.”
As recently as June last year, I was somewhat up for seeing this fight. That was before I started to see major cracks emerging in Golovkin’s armor.
The fight against Rolls was a joke. The guy was essentially a personal trainer who had never fought a 12-round fight, with all due respect. Still, Rolls landed shots with ease in that second round.
And didn’t he look very troubled by Derevyanchenko in October? His promoter, Eddie Hearn, claimed that he was ill ahead of the fight. Believe that if you will.
More than this, his willingness to throw longtime trainer Abel Sanchez overboard following the loss to Canelo was an insight into a changed mentality. It seems that this was his solution to the issue — to put the blame on someone else.
But at 37, was this the right move to make? Is Johnathon Banks the right coach for a guy that has recently made wholesale changes to his career, including promotional and distribution deals for his fights?
Whether the disruptions to his life were the reasons behind a poor performance against Derevyanchenko remains to be seen. But I’ll bet that he is just not the same fighter anymore.
Canelo vs. GGG 3 – Who Will Win the Fight?
Alvarez vs. Golovkin 3 might be the biggest fight to make in the middleweight division right now, but I’m not sure it will be as close as the first two.
If I had to put my money down on either fighter on any of the top boxing betting sites right now, I would back Canelo. But rather than giving you an answer now, let’s see if anything changes closer to the bout.
With the uncertainty that has arisen out of the sporting world’s battle with the coronavirus, an announcement on Canelo vs. GGG 3 is probably not feasible for a while. But when things are confirmed, I’ll be back with a breakdown of the bout and a clear and concise rationale for my pick.
Until then, folks.
On February 27th, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez beat his mandatory challenger Avni Yildirim in dominating fashion. In fact, it was so bad of a beating that Yildirim’s corner threw in the towel at the end of the third round.
Alvarez (55-1-2, 37 KO) successfully retained his WBC and WBA super middleweight titles and will now move on to the next challenge which is going to be Billy Joe Saunders on May 8th.
🔰 Saul @Canelo Alvarez 🔰
The super middleweight champ defends his crown 👑 pic.twitter.com/l9zvdJkVhc
— World Boxing Council (@WBCBoxing) February 28, 2021
Canelo vs Saunders Betting Odds
The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
- Canelo Alvarez (-550)
- Billy Joe Saunders (+400)
Alvarez opened as the rightful betting favorite with odds hovering just below -600. Since then, his odds have pretty much stayed between -500 and -625 depending on the boxing betting sites that you look at. Saunders opened as a +400 underdog and remains in the range or +333 to +460.
Does Saunders Have a Shot at Beating Canelo?
The question now turns to whether or not the WBO super middle weight champ Billy Joe Saunders (30-0, 14 KO) can derail the Canelo train. If you ask Saunders, he certainly believes so:
“I believe I am the only one with the footwork, know-how, skill-set, mindset and brain to unlock that door in Canelo. He’s the main man in the sport and the face of boxing. You have to give him respect, he hasn’t ducked anyone, he’s beaten good names, but nobody is unbeatable, and I believe I have got the tools to beat him if I use them properly and if the game plan comes off that I believe works.”
Golovkin Vs Alvarez
Since Canelo moved to the 168 pound weight class, he has made it clear that his goal is to unify the division.
It started last December when Alvarez dominated Callum Smith to capture Smith’s WBA super middleweight title and the vacant WBC belt via unanimous decision. Smith never had control of the fight and appeared to be out of his league with the smaller Alvarez.
Canelo Alvarez 🤝 Billy Joe Saunders
▪️8th May (Cinco De Mayo Weekend)
▪️WBO, WBA & WBC Super Middleweight Titles on the line
Confirmed ✅ pic.twitter.com/YHRLmuFHEZ
— C&M Boxing Productions (@CMBox01) February 28, 2021
As for Saunders, it’s hard to point at a truly remarkable win on his resume. Furthermore, he has just 14 KOs in his 30 pro victories, which won’t cut it when it comes to fighting Alvarez.
Saunders isn’t going to outbox Alvarez and he doesn’t have the power to stop him. More than likely, Alvarez will get in on the inside and do a lot of damage just like he has in his last handful of fights.
Latest On Golovkin And Canelo
I see this contest ending with Canelo capturing the WBO title from Saunders via unanimous decision. I’d be surprised if Saunders won more than three rounds.
Will the WBC Stand in the Way of Canelo’s Mission Once Again?
As soon as it was publicly known that the WBC was forcing Alvarez to face Yildirim, the public backlash was fierce and it didn’t let up. In fact, it’s once again raging as fans and pundits complain about the sport’s ineptness as the fight against Yildirim should’ve never happened.
As I said before, this was nothing more than a cash grab for the WBC to get a pay day on the back of the sport’s biggest star. Most pundits believed the fight would be a one sided domination for Canelo and it was.
For starters, Avni was coming off a loss and a two year layoff. There was nothing in his resume that indicated he should be in the same ring as Alvarez.
On fight night, Canelo proved everyone right and the corrupt WBC officials wrong. Following the fight, WBC president Sulaiman commented on the result:
“I’m sorry for Avni. The paper sometimes doesn’t reflect the actions, and it was very unfortunate. We had great expectations, and it’s a matter where we [WBC] need to look into the process that is not working in some roads. Definitely, there are things that we have to go back and look at what is happening and how things evolve. As I say, he [Canelo] was tremendously successful, he was in great shape, and that stage should have been for a much greater fight.”
You think? Everyone was telling the WBC that this fight was a joke. We could all see that this was nothing more than a glorified sparring session for Alvarez.
Canelo never once complained about this matchup because he knew it was going to be an easy night as he took on a punching bag with feet.
Is There a “Greater Fight” for Canelo at 168 Pounds?
After Saunders in May, the goal is for Canelo to fight Caleb Plant (21-0, 12 KOs) in September for the IBF super middleweight title. That fight would be for all of the gold in the division. The winner would walk away as the undisputed super middleweight champ.
Plant’s a talented fighter, but he doesn’t have the skills to defeat Alvarez. It’s clear, Canelo is going to run through this division and take all of the gold.
Who should @Canelo fight next? #CaneloSmith
🥊 Caleb Plant
🥊 Errol Spence Jr.
🥊 Billy Joe Saunders
🥊 Gennadiy Golovkin
🥊 David Benavidez pic.twitter.com/GcSR0laN8t
— ESPN Ringside (@ESPNRingside) December 20, 2020
Once Alvarez becomes the undisputed super middleweight champ, he will have to decide to go up in weight, down in weight, or force other fighters to come to this weight class.
If he stays at super middleweight, Alvarez could take on David Benavidez who wants to fight Canelo and would be arguably the best competition for Alvarez in this weight class.
However, it’s more than likely that Alvarez will face one of the following fighters in 2022 after he wins all of the gold in the 168 pound weight class:
Gennadiy Golovkin (41-1-1, 36 KOs)
GGG and Canelo had two great fights with both ending in somewhat controversial fashion as there are many pundits and fans that felt Golovkin won at least one of their two contests.
Since their second bout in 2018, where Canelo got the controversial win, Golovkin has been publicly lobbying for a trilogy bout and chasing after Alvarez.
Canelo hasn’t run from GGG, but he has said that a third fight will happen after he makes history in the super middleweight division. This is a sentiment that promoter Eddie Hearn reiterated after the Canelo win on Saturday:
“The focus of Canelo and Eddy [Reynoso] is to be undisputed champion, and if we were to follow that line, it goes with Saunders in May, with Plant in September. The fight with Golovkin remains there as one great fight, but right now Canelo has history and legacy on his mind and that is being the undisputed champion in his division.”
If Golovkin can get through some intriguing matchups this year then he certainly becomes a legitimate option for Alvarez next year.
Artur Beterbiev (15-0, 15 KOs)
Beterbiev is the WBC and IBF light heavyweight champ and is well on his way to becoming the division’s undisputed king. Most pundits feel that he’s the best in the division as Artur continues to steamroll the competition.
There’s been a few murmurs that Canelo could go up and fight Beterbiev, which would be a fantastic matchup. Artur has the power and physicality that could derail Canelo. That’s what makes this fight so exciting.
Can you imagine if Canelo is the undisputed 168 pound champ and he fights Beterbiev next year after Artur becomes the undisputed 175 pound champ? It could change the sport for the better.
Jermall Charlo (31-0, 22 KOs)
WBC middleweight champ Jermall Charlo has been publicly lobbying for a fight against Canelo who has acknowledged this. But, like with the other men on this list, a potential fight against Charlo won’t happen until next year.
Additionally, Charlo would most likely have to come up to super middleweight from the 160 pound weight class because it appears that Alvarez likes this weight more.