W e have chosen his book The Best of Thoroughbred Handicapping, Leading Ideas and Methods as one of the 10 best racing books of the last 20 years. In this exclusive extract, Quinn pays tribute to the work of fellow US professio nal and former PPM columnist Barry Meadow. Dear Dr Curran, I write with reference to the excellent review by Eddison and Chockalingam on ankle–foot orthosis (AFO) tuning in the April 2013 issue of Prosthetics and Orthotics International. While I agree that further research is needed on the effect of tuning, I am very concerned that the conclusions listed in the article might dissuade clinicians from undertaking tuning of rigid AFOs. Barry Meadow is the author of Money Secrets At The Racetrack. For seven years, he published the newsletter Meadow's Racing Monthly. In 2014, he won the first-ever Ron Rippey Award for handicapping.
a) 1-2 $40
b) 2-1 $30
Bet a will be $10
bet b will be $12
For a total of $22 bet to return $200.
Of course, you have to keep an eye on the payouts to ensure that you are not betting too much in regards to the payout.
On a different note, there is another handicapping book that is now out that is worth reading. Besides Dr Z's book mentioned yesterday, Barry Meadows has a new book out: 'The Skeptical Handicapper'. It has a solid discussion of angles and how many races constitute a fair sample. Too many times, a person will find something that works profitably for a short time. This leads one to think he has found the secret of racing. However, continue with the angle and one will give all the profits back and then some. The original sample was too small to make a fair assessment.The Skeptical Handicapper
By Barry Meadow
Just for starters, music comes in classical, jazz, rock or country. Houses might be ranch, A-frame, Cape Cod or Victorian. You might buy a peacoat, warmup jacket, wool coat or leather jacket.
The point: Just because you don’t handicap the way I do, or the way your friends do, doesn’t make you wrong. You simply have a different style.
Once you’ve identified your style, you can decide how best to approach the races. Unless you’re preparing to deliver a handicapping seminar, there’s no point in spending hours researching every fact about every entrant in every race. Instead, identify the approach you’re taking to the game, then figure out how to get the most out of your handicapping time.
For instance, if your main goal is superfecta bombs, why waste time looking at seven-horse fields? Instead, turn to the races with big fields and a less-than-stellar favorite. If, on the other hand, you prefer to make two big bets a day on solid exactas, look to find races where the competition doesn’t run deep and you can zero in on the main players quickly.
Some popular approaches to the game, with some suggestions:
You are a longshot player. Rather than handicap each race in detail, look for races with large fields that may have a vulnerable favorite and perhaps a false second choice as well. Concentrate on horses with high morning lines (6–1 and up) that figure to improve enough to run a winning a race. Angles such as early speed, trainer changes, distance switches and surface changes may be more effective in locating live longshots than simply calculating speed ratings.
You are a show bettor who likes to cash a lot of tickets. Look for consistent, in-form horses in short fields. Better to bet on a guy whose Beyers are 70-69-70 than one who shows 70-85-55. Cricket betting app listening. Cover all the general handicapping bases: decent numbers, acceptable pace scenario, good trainer, no negatives in the area of workouts, no distance questions, etc.
You’re a weekend player who plays as a hobby. Get help from those who are doing this full time. You won’t be able to watch every replay, but you can subscribe to a trip-notes report. You haven’t got the time to compile your own trainer data, but an Internet site can do it for you. Study the comments of the handicappers in Daily Racing Form and listen to your local radio handicapping shows. You might choose to subscribe to a handicapping service.
You try to predict what the public will do en route to identifying horses that are likely to be overbet. Like the oddsmaker that sets the track’s morning line, your goal is not to pick winners but merely to predict how the public will bet the race. Emphasize such factors as speed ratings, odds in recent races, class movements, trainers and jockeys. You will make no attempt at this stage of the handicapping to judge whether the horse you make the favorite is worth betting. The goal is to understand why they’re betting an individual horse. Later, you will compare this evaluation with your own assessment of the entrants.
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You concentrate on betting exchanges. If your strategy is to offer prices against horses you don’t like, look for horses that have little chance to win. They have slow speed figures, low-percentage trainers, questionable workout patterns, etc. You’re looking for contenders not because you plan to bet any of them but to form an “entry” against the horses you consider throwouts.
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You are a tournament player. Like the longshot player, you have little interest in spending an hour finding a 9–5 shot. Go right for the competitive races with full fields. Unlike the day-in, day-out handicapper, you don’t care whether an 18–1 shot you think can win should be 10–1 or 20–1. You need big prices, whether overlays or not.
You play for rebates. Making a profit is not as important as volume, both to qualify for the biggest rebates and to increase the post-rebate net. Assuming you get a 10 percent rebate, you might use a computer program to identify situations that have shown an ROI of at least 0.91. With a successful program, you don’t have to handicap at all. By betting many tracks, you spread your risk.
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You prefer trifectas and superfectas. Big fields, big payoffs. Look for “chaos” races where there are a lot of questions. You may be confused, but the public will be, too. Look especially to toss the favorite and/or the second choice. Don’t be afraid to key longshots to finish third or fourth.
You look to exploit match-bet opportunities. Play with places that offer 10-cent lines such as Pinnacle Sports. Look especially to bet against horses whose style is all wrong for the race, though they might have good final figures. Monitor the lines because sometimes they’ll move in a beautiful way so that you can bet on one horse at +1.20 early, then bet his opponent later at +1.10 — guaranteeing you a profit no matter who wins. You’re not handicapping to pick the winner but to see which horse offers the better gambling proposition.
Barry Meadows New Book
There’s more than one way to make money at this game. Discover what appeals to you and concentrate your handicapping time on areas that help you get the most of your own preferences — instead of doing what a handicapping book might tell you to do.
Barry Medow Facebook
Barry Meadow is the author of Money Secrets at the Racetrack. For seven years, he published the award-winning newsletter, Meadow’s Racing Monthly. His Web site is www.trpublishing.com.